NOTRE DAME
FIGHTING IRISHND
13-18 | Road
56
HOUSTON
COUGARSHOU
30-7 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING IRISH
100%
COUGARS
0%
FIGHTING IRISH
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
ND By 1-7 points
21.6%
ND By 8-14 points
10.7%
HOU By 1-7 points
27.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Notre Dame
58
NOTRE DAME
Houston
61
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Notre Dame
61
NOTRE DAME
Houston
72
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cougars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 26, 2025
ND @ HOU
56 - 66
Nov 27, 2024
HOU @ ND
65 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+135.7% more
Houston: 5.0
vs
Notre Dame: 2.1
Assists (L5)
+62.0% more
Houston: 16.0
vs
Notre Dame: 9.9
Steals (L5)
+27.5% more
Houston: 7.4
vs
Notre Dame: 5.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.4%
Houston: 76.9%
vs
Notre Dame: 72.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ND Score
58.0
56
HOU Score
61.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 34.2
30.0 / 21.0
Assists
16.0 / 9.9
15.0 / 10.0
Blocks
5.0 / 2.1
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 46.2
34.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
76.9 / 72.5
78.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
38.9 / 36.1
44.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.4 / 5.8
4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 12.0
5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.9
HOU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.9
HOU
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0%
Total +/-: +5.0
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ND
HOU
ND
ML
70%
26-11
65%
20-11
68%
23-11
77%
24-7
ATS
70%
26-11
55%
17-14
68%
23-11
77%
24-7
TTL
59%
22-15
68%
21-10
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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