NC STATE
WOLFPACKNCSU
5-1 | Road
97
TEXAS
LONGHORNSTEX
21-15 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
100%
LONGHORNS
0%
WOLFPACK
--
LONGHORNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
82.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TEX -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
NCSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
NCSU By 8-14 points
6.8%
TEX By 1-7 points
26.8%
TEX By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
NC State
38
NC STATE
Texas
44
TEXAS
Simulated Score
NC State
72
NC STATE
Texas
75
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Longhorns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Longhorns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Longhorns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Longhorns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 82.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
TEX @ NCSU
68 - 66
Nov 26, 2025
NCSU @ TEX
97 - 102
Dec 4, 2024
TEX @ NCSU
63 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+40.6% more
Texas: 16.0
vs
NC State: 11.4
Rebounding (L5)
+27.5% more
Texas: 46.7
vs
NC State: 36.6
Assists (L5)
+12.4% more
Texas: 17.0
vs
NC State: 15.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.7%
Texas: 55.6%
vs
NC State: 47.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score
38.0
97
TEX Score
44.0
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 39.4
50.0 / 47.0
Assists
17.0 / 15.1
18.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.3 / 4.1
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
55.6 / 47.9
56.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
69.5 / 77.5
85.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
46.7 / 36.6
31.0 / 28.0
Steals
7.4 / 8.6
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
16.0 / 11.4
7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
TEX
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
16-17-1
(48.5%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
TEX
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
NCSU
TEX
NCSU
ML
58%
21-15
59%
20-14
56%
19-15
55%
18-15
ATS
56%
20-16
71%
24-10
56%
19-15
55%
18-15
TTL
64%
23-13
71%
24-10
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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