BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
17-17 | Road
91
SAN DIEGO STATE
AZTECSSDSU
22-11 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
AZTECS
0%
BEARS
--
AZTECS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (San Diego State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)
BAY By 1-7 points
5.8%
BAY By 8-14 points
1.4%
SDSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
SDSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Baylor
35
BAYLOR
San Diego State
49
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
Baylor
68
BAYLOR
San Diego State
71
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aztecs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aztecs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aztecs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Aztecs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 84.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 26, 2025
BAY @ SDSU
91 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+43.2% more
San Diego State: 15.3
vs
Baylor: 10.7
Blocks (L5)
+39.0% more
San Diego State: 4.9
vs
Baylor: 3.5
Steals (L5)
+33.8% more
San Diego State: 7.7
vs
Baylor: 5.8
Assists (L5)
+19.2% more
San Diego State: 16.2
vs
Baylor: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAY Score
35.0
91
SDSU Score
49.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.3 / 34.6
42.0 / 39.0
Assists
16.2 / 13.6
20.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.9 / 3.5
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
49.7 / 43.7
47.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
78.5 / 80.1
82.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
34.8 / 39.8
29.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.7 / 5.8
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.3 / 10.7
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
SDSU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
SDSU
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
BAY
SDSU
BAY
ML
62%
20-12
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
53%
17-15
ATS
69%
22-10
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
53%
17-15
TTL
75%
24-8
45%
15-18
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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