Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gaels @ Hokies SMC @ VT

SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

27-6  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Nov 27 • 2:30 PM ET
Imperial Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

HOKIESVT

19-13  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
📊
HOKIES
0%
GAELS --
HOKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
115.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Virginia Tech)
GaelsSMC (-3.5) 0 HokiesVT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gaels Cover

46.0%

Hokies Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VT)

SMC By 1-7 points

24.3%

SMC By 8-14 points

13.7%

VT By 1-7 points

26.2%

VT By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
57
SAINT MARY'S
58
VIRGINIA TECH
Simulated Score
72
SAINT MARY'S
68
VIRGINIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hokies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hokies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Gaels (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 115.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 27, 2025 SMC @ VT 77 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +16.8% more
Saint Mary's: 42.7 vs Virginia Tech: 35.6
Blocks (L5) +15.3% more
Saint Mary's: 4.1 vs Virginia Tech: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +12.6% more
Saint Mary's: 10.3 vs Virginia Tech: 9.0
Free Throw % (L5) +7.8%
Saint Mary's: 78.5% vs Virginia Tech: 70.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMC Score 57.0 77
VT Score 58.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 33.8 23.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.8 / 14.5 11.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.1 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 45.3 31.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 78.5 85.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 42.7 34.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.7 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 10.3 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC Advantage
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
VT
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
VT
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
SMC
VT
SMC
ML
53% 17-15
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
82% 23-5
ATS
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
83% 24-5
TTL
69% 22-10
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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