Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dons @ Wolf Pack SF @ NEV

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

17-16  |  Road

65
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 2:00 PM ET
Acrisure Arena
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

24-13  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
DONS
100%
📊
WOLF PACK
0%
DONS --
WOLF PACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Nevada)
DonsSF (-3.5) 0 Wolf PackNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dons Cover

21.2%

Wolf Pack Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEV -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

SF By 1-7 points

13.7%

SF By 8-14 points

4.8%

NEV By 1-7 points

25.3%

NEV By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
77
SAN FRANCISCO
85
NEVADA
Simulated Score
72
SAN FRANCISCO
75
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolf Pack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolf Pack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolf Pack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Wolf Pack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 SF @ NEV 65 - 81
Nov 18, 2021 NEV @ SF 70 - 73
Dec 2, 2020 SF @ NEV 85 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +125.8% more
Nevada: 5.1 vs San Francisco: 2.3
Steals (L5) +50.2% more
Nevada: 6.6 vs San Francisco: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5) +9.6%
Nevada: 76.0% vs San Francisco: 66.4%
Turnovers (L5) +10.4% more
San Francisco: 12.3 vs Nevada: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 77.0 65
NEV Score 85.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 41.5 50.0 / 30.0
Assists 13.3 / 14.0 19.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.1 / 2.3 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 47.1 48.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 66.4 78.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 36.5 29.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.6 / 4.4 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 12.3 4.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
NEV Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
NEV Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
SF
NEV
SF
ML
62% 23-14
39% 13-20
73% 27-10
64% 21-12
ATS
73% 27-10
42% 14-19
73% 27-10
64% 21-12
TTL
49% 18-19
73% 24-9
100% 37-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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