PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
15-18 | Road
78
FLORIDA
GATORSFLA
27-8 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
100%
GATORS
0%
FRIARS
--
GATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FLA -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
PROV By 1-7 points
8.0%
PROV By 8-14 points
2.2%
FLA By 1-7 points
20.1%
FLA By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Providence
65
PROVIDENCE
Florida
77
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Providence
74
PROVIDENCE
Florida
79
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gators
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gators (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Gators (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 28, 2025
PROV @ FLA
78 - 90
Dec 17, 2019
FLA @ PROV
83 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+43.7% more
Florida: 15.9
vs
Providence: 11.1
Rebounding (L5)
+12.7% more
Florida: 44.7
vs
Providence: 39.7
Blocks (L5)
+12.2% more
Florida: 4.6
vs
Providence: 4.1
Steals (L5)
+15.0% more
Providence: 6.4
vs
Florida: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PROV Score
65.0
78
FLA Score
77.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.3 / 32.1
36.0 / 38.0
Assists
15.4 / 15.7
18.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.6 / 4.1
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 46.4
42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
75.0 / 77.1
81.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
44.7 / 39.7
42.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.4 / 6.4
2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 11.1
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
FLA
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
FLA
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
PROV
FLA
PROV
ML
77%
27-8
59%
19-13
63%
22-13
67%
20-10
ATS
69%
24-11
50%
16-16
63%
22-13
67%
20-10
TTL
63%
22-13
44%
14-18
100%
35-0
100%
30-0
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