Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rams @ Bulls CSU @ USF

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

21-13  |  Road

83
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 4:30 PM ET
Imperial Arena
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

25-9  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
100%
📊
BULLS
0%
RAMS --
BULLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (South Florida)
RamsCSU (-3.5) 0 BullsUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

1.4%

Bulls Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USF -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

CSU By 1-7 points

1.1%

CSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

USF By 1-7 points

5.8%

USF By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
62
COLORADO STATE
84
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
68
COLORADO STATE
72
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulls Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Bulls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 CSU @ USF 83 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +319.3% more
South Florida: 4.8 vs Colorado State: 1.1
Steals (L5) +130.5% more
South Florida: 9.8 vs Colorado State: 4.3
Rebounding (L5) +32.9% more
South Florida: 42.8 vs Colorado State: 32.2
Turnovers (L5) +18.0% more
South Florida: 12.2 vs Colorado State: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSU Score 62.0 83
USF Score 84.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.2 / 37.4 26.0 / 73.0
Assists 17.8 / 18.0 15.0 / 23.0
Blocks 4.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 50.8 36.0 / 61.0
Free Throw % 71.3 / 72.2 71.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 42.8 / 32.2 32.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.8 / 4.3 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 10.4 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
USF
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
CSU
USF
CSU
ML
61% 20-13
56% 19-15
52% 16-15
65% 20-11
ATS
61% 20-13
62% 21-13
52% 16-15
65% 20-11
TTL
52% 17-16
56% 19-15
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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