BYU
COUGARSBYU
5-1 | Road
83
DAYTON
FLYERSDAY
25-12 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
FLYERS
0%
COUGARS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Dayton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)
BYU By 1-7 points
5.8%
BYU By 8-14 points
1.4%
DAY By 1-7 points
16.9%
DAY By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
BYU
69
BYU
Dayton
83
DAYTON
Simulated Score
BYU
72
BYU
Dayton
75
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flyers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 28, 2025
BYU @ DAY
83 - 79
Nov 25, 2022
BYU @ DAY
79 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+22.5% more
Dayton: 12.8
vs
BYU: 10.5
Steals (L5)
+20.2% more
Dayton: 8.6
vs
BYU: 7.2
Blocks (L5)
+13.7% more
BYU: 4.3
vs
Dayton: 3.7
Rebounding (L5)
+9.0% more
BYU: 40.1
vs
Dayton: 36.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BYU Score
69.0
83
DAY Score
83.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 39.1
45.0 / 45.0
Assists
14.7 / 13.7
14.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.7 / 4.3
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 47.3
47.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
71.6 / 74.2
43.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
36.5 / 40.1
32.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.6 / 7.2
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 10.5
14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: -1.9
DAY
Advantage
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU
16-19-0
(45.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: -1.9
DAY
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
17-18-0
O: 48.6% / U: 51.4%
Total +/-: +0.1
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9%
Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
BYU
DAY
BYU
ML
65%
24-13
60%
21-14
64%
23-13
72%
23-9
ATS
68%
25-12
54%
19-16
64%
23-13
72%
23-9
TTL
57%
21-16
69%
24-11
100%
36-0
100%
32-0
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