LEHIGH
MOUNTAIN HAWKSLEH
18-17 | Road
78
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
19-13 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAIN HAWKS
100%
BOBCATS
0%
MOUNTAIN HAWKS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Texas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)
LEH By 1-7 points
0.1%
LEH By 8-14 points
0.0%
TXST By 1-7 points
0.6%
TXST By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Lehigh
57
LEHIGH
Texas State
89
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
Lehigh
68
LEHIGH
Texas State
72
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
LEH @ TXST
78 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+61.0% more
Texas State: 9.0
vs
Lehigh: 5.6
Rebounding (L5)
+36.6% more
Texas State: 40.5
vs
Lehigh: 29.7
Turnovers (L5)
+25.2% more
Texas State: 14.1
vs
Lehigh: 11.3
Assists (L5)
+11.6% more
Texas State: 13.8
vs
Lehigh: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LEH Score
57.0
78
TXST Score
89.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.7 / 30.9
33.0 / 52.0
Assists
13.8 / 12.4
11.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.2
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 41.1
44.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
68.6 / 71.8
78.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
40.5 / 29.7
40.0 / 27.0
Steals
9.0 / 5.6
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 11.3
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LEH
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: -1.1
ATS +/-: +1.0
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LEH
Advantage
18-14-1
(56.3%)
Margin: -1.1
ATS +/-: +1.0
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LEH
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: +4.5
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
LEH
TXST
LEH
ML
42%
13-18
56%
19-15
83%
25-5
68%
23-11
ATS
48%
15-16
56%
19-15
84%
26-5
68%
23-11
TTL
65%
20-11
76%
26-8
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
