Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Squirrels @ Panthers MARY @ HPU

MARY BALDWIN

FIGHTING SQUIRRELSMARY

0-0  |  Road

47
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Qubein Center
View Odds Details →

HIGH POINT

PANTHERSHPU

9-3  |  Home

129
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING SQUIRRELS
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
FIGHTING SQUIRRELS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-48.0
HIGH POINT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +48.0 points (High Point)
Fighting SquirrelsMARY (-3.5) 0 PanthersHPU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Squirrels Cover

0.0%

Panthers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HPU -48.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HPU)

MARY By 1-7 points

0.0%

MARY By 8-14 points

0.0%

HPU By 1-7 points

0.0%

HPU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
57
MARY BALDWIN
105
HIGH POINT
Simulated Score
58
MARY BALDWIN
92
HIGH POINT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -48.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 MARY @ HPU 47 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +64.5% more
High Point: 15.0 vs Mary Baldwin: 9.1
Rebounding (L5) +60.3% more
High Point: 38.7 vs Mary Baldwin: 24.1
Blocks (L5) +53.2% more
High Point: 1.9 vs Mary Baldwin: 1.2
Free Throw % (L5) +15.2%
High Point: 68.8% vs Mary Baldwin: 53.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MARY Score 57.0 47
HPU Score 105.0 129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 25.0 52.0 / 25.0
Assists 15.0 / 9.1 24.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.9 / 1.2 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 34.1 64.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 53.7 76.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 24.1 46.0 / 20.0
Steals 8.8 / 8.9 16.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 18.4 7.0 / 26.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MARY
--
HPU Advantage
31-5-0 (86.1%)
Margin: 18.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MARY
--
HPU Advantage
17-15-1 (53.1%)
Margin: 18.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MARY
--
HPU
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HPU
MARY
HPU
MARY
ML
80% 28-7
100% 2-0
80% 28-7
100% 2-0
ATS
71% 25-10
100% 2-0
80% 28-7
100% 2-0
TTL
66% 23-12
100% 2-0
100% 35-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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