Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Rockets UTAH @ HOU

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

0-0  |  Road

127
FINAL
Wed, Oct 8 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

1-0  |  Home

140
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
JAZZ --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Houston)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

22.7%

Rockets Cover

77.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -7.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

UTAH By 1-7 points

14.5%

UTAH By 8-14 points

5.3%

HOU By 1-7 points

25.8%

HOU By 8-14 points

25.8%

AI Model Projected Score
104.16
UTAH
111.64
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
113
UTAH
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.5
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 215.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 3, 2026 UTAH @ HOU 106 - 140
Feb 23, 2026 UTAH @ HOU 105 - 125
Dec 1, 2025 HOU @ UTAH 125 - 133
Nov 30, 2025 HOU @ UTAH 129 - 101
Oct 8, 2025 UTAH @ HOU 127 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.0% more
Houston: 5.6 vs Utah: 3.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Houston: 39.2% vs Utah: 34.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Houston: 46.0% vs Utah: 44.1%
Assists (L5) +15.3% more
Utah: 24.6 vs Houston: 20.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 104.2 127
HOU Score 111.6 140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 34.9 38.2 / 44.4
Assists 20.9 / 24.6 32.0 / 36.0
Blocks 5.6 / 3.9 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 44.1 53.6 / 56.2
Free Throw % 76.0 / 81.4 76.7 / 58.3
Rebounding 48.9 / 46.1 47.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.1 / 8.0 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 15.4 13.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
UTAH
HOU
UTAH
ML
61% 69-44
60% 96-63
59% 51-35
48% 40-43
ATS
62% 70-43
68% 108-51
59% 51-35
48% 40-43
TTL
51% 58-55
75% 119-39-1
100% 86-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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