Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Warriors POR @ GS

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

0-0  |  Road

123
FINAL
Wed, Oct 8 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

1-0  |  Home

129
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Golden State)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

17.1%

Warriors Cover

82.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

POR By 1-7 points

11.4%

POR By 8-14 points

3.6%

GS By 1-7 points

23.6%

GS By 8-14 points

27.1%

AI Model Projected Score
100.87
PORTLAND
110.39
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
107
PORTLAND
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.5
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 211.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 POR @ GS 97 - 119
Dec 14, 2025 GS @ POR 131 - 136
Nov 21, 2025 POR @ GS 127 - 123
Oct 24, 2025 GS @ POR 119 - 139
Oct 14, 2025 GS @ POR 118 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +15.5% more
Golden State: 10.5 vs Portland: 9.1
Free Throw % (L5) +11.4%
Golden State: 76.4% vs Portland: 65.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
Golden State: 35.1% vs Portland: 29.4%
Blocks (L5) +22.2% more
Portland: 5.3 vs Golden State: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 100.9 123
GS Score 110.4 129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 29.4 42.2 / 33.3
Assists 25.9 / 24.8 31.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.1 / 5.3 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 43.0 47.2 / 41.7
Free Throw % 76.4 / 65.0 76.5 / 63.6
Rebounding 41.3 / 50.8 44.0 / 60.0
Steals 10.5 / 9.1 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 17.8 / 16.9 20.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
POR
GS
POR
ML
55% 95-79
53% 56-49
58% 49-35
55% 49-40
ATS
58% 101-73
62% 65-39-1
58% 49-35
55% 49-40
TTL
77% 134-40
56% 58-46-1
100% 84-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 37 minutes ago
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 53 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 6 hours, 41 minutes ago
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
yahoo 6 hours, 44 minutes ago
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 6 hours, 47 minutes ago