Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Wizards TOR @ WSH

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

2-1  |  Road

113
FINAL
Sun, Oct 12 • 3:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

0-0  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
RAPTORS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 points (Toronto)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

68.3%

Wizards Cover

31.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR -4.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-7 points

27.3%

TOR By 8-14 points

22.7%

WSH By 1-7 points

18.9%

WSH By 8-14 points

8.3%

AI Model Projected Score
109.7
TORONTO
104.94
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
109
TORONTO
116
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raptors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raptors (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.8
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 214.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 TOR @ WSH 134 - 125
Dec 26, 2025 TOR @ WSH 117 - 138
Nov 21, 2025 WSH @ TOR 110 - 140
Oct 12, 2025 TOR @ WSH 113 - 112
Mar 24, 2025 TOR @ WSH 112 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +52.5% more
Toronto: 11.9 vs Washington: 5.6
Assists (L5) +12.8% more
Toronto: 29.8 vs Washington: 25.9
Turnovers (L5) +10.7% more
Toronto: 15.7 vs Washington: 14.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Toronto: 37.3% vs Washington: 33.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 109.7 113
WSH Score 104.9 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 37.3 29.0 / 28.6
Assists 25.9 / 29.8 21.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.1 11.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 44.7 39.3 / 33.6
Free Throw % 73.2 / 72.8 80.5 / 90.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 39.6 63.0 / 59.0
Steals 5.6 / 11.9 5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 15.7 19.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TOR
WSH
TOR
ML
70% 112-49
55% 57-47
47% 39-44
55% 48-39
ATS
69% 111-49-1
61% 62-40-2
47% 39-44
55% 48-39
TTL
74% 119-41-1
60% 62-42
100% 83-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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