DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
1-1 | Road
114
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
0-2 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
JAZZ
100%
MAVERICKS
--
JAZZ
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1-7 points
26.6%
DAL By 8-14 points
18.0%
UTAH By 1-7 points
23.5%
UTAH By 8-14 points
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
108.9
DALLAS
Utah
107.26
UTAH
Simulated Score
Dallas
109
DALLAS
Utah
116
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jazz
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.6
D
Sim
Jazz (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 216.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
UTAH @ DAL
120 - 138
Jan 15, 2026
UTAH @ DAL
122 - 144
Jan 8, 2026
DAL @ UTAH
114 - 116
Dec 15, 2025
DAL @ UTAH
133 - 140
Oct 13, 2025
DAL @ UTAH
114 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+63.6% more
Dallas: 8.1
vs
Utah: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+20.6% more
Dallas: 10.0
vs
Utah: 7.9
Turnovers (L5)
+10.3% more
Dallas: 16.7
vs
Utah: 14.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.4%
Utah: 79.8%
vs
Dallas: 76.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
108.9
114
UTAH Score
107.3
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.8 / 34.8
29.7 / 28.3
Assists
27.6 / 27.3
22.0 / 32.0
Blocks
2.9 / 8.1
3.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 47.7
40.2 / 39.4
Free Throw %
79.8 / 76.4
74.1 / 78.1
Rebounding
41.6 / 43.1
48.0 / 59.0
Steals
7.9 / 10.0
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 16.7
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
DAL
UTAH
DAL
ML
60%
96-63
62%
63-39
48%
40-43
54%
44-37
ATS
68%
108-51
67%
68-34
48%
40-43
54%
44-37
TTL
75%
119-39-1
59%
60-41-1
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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