Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Pelicans HOU @ NO

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

2-0  |  Road

130
FINAL
Tue, Oct 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Legacy Arena at the BJCC
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

2-0  |  Home

128
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
ROCKETS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
204.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.3 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

87.1%

Pelicans Cover

12.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -11.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

21.2%

HOU By 8-14 points

27.4%

NO By 1-7 points

8.9%

NO By 8-14 points

2.5%

AI Model Projected Score
107.97
HOUSTON
96.67
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
109
HOUSTON
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.3
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 204.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 HOU @ NO 134 - 102
Mar 13, 2026 NO @ HOU 105 - 107
Jan 18, 2026 NO @ HOU 110 - 119
Dec 18, 2025 HOU @ NO 128 - 133
Oct 14, 2025 HOU @ NO 130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +41.9% more
Houston: 5.7 vs New Orleans: 3.3
Steals (L5) +14.3% more
Houston: 8.1 vs New Orleans: 6.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
Houston: 38.9% vs New Orleans: 29.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
Houston: 48.6% vs New Orleans: 42.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 108.0 130
NO Score 96.7 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 38.9 23.7 / 30.6
Assists 25.7 / 24.6 21.0 / 26.0
Blocks 3.3 / 5.7 4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 48.6 46.5 / 47.4
Free Throw % 73.3 / 76.2 92.6 / 90.0
Rebounding 45.8 / 48.3 46.0 / 50.0
Steals 6.9 / 8.1 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 14.6 16.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
HOU
NO
HOU
ML
62% 98-61
61% 69-44
58% 48-35
59% 51-35
ATS
68% 107-51-1
62% 70-43
58% 48-35
59% 51-35
TTL
75% 119-40
51% 58-55
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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