Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Trail Blazers GS @ POR

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

2-1  |  Road

118
FINAL
Tue, Oct 14 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

1-1  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
WARRIORS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.6
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.6 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

83.1%

Trail Blazers Cover

16.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -9.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

23.6%

GS By 8-14 points

27.1%

POR By 1-7 points

11.3%

POR By 8-14 points

3.6%

AI Model Projected Score
112.71
GOLDEN STATE
103.12
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
108
GOLDEN STATE
125
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.6
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 215.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 POR @ GS 97 - 119
Dec 14, 2025 GS @ POR 131 - 136
Nov 21, 2025 POR @ GS 127 - 123
Oct 24, 2025 GS @ POR 119 - 139
Oct 14, 2025 GS @ POR 118 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.9% more
Golden State: 10.0 vs Portland: 7.7
Assists (L5) +22.8% more
Golden State: 29.1 vs Portland: 22.5
Free Throw % (L5) +9.6%
Golden State: 76.0% vs Portland: 66.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Golden State: 35.8% vs Portland: 29.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 112.7 118
POR Score 103.1 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.5 / 35.8 20.9 / 36.0
Assists 22.5 / 29.1 21.0 / 26.0
Blocks 5.3 / 4.1 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 47.8 38.5 / 42.5
Free Throw % 66.4 / 76.0 71.0 / 78.8
Rebounding 52.6 / 38.8 52.0 / 55.0
Steals 7.7 / 10.0 13.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 18.0 / 19.0 19.0 / 26.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
GS
POR
GS
ML
53% 56-49
55% 95-79
55% 49-40
58% 49-35
ATS
62% 65-39-1
58% 101-73
55% 49-40
58% 49-35
TTL
56% 58-46-1
77% 134-40
100% 89-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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