NORTH CAROLINA A&T
AGGIESNCAT
3-1 | Road
79
MORGAN STATE
BEARSMORG
1-4 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
BEARS
0%
AGGIES
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MORGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Morgan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MORG -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORG)
NCAT By 1-7 points
8.0%
NCAT By 8-14 points
2.2%
MORG By 1-7 points
20.1%
MORG By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
North Carolina A&T
64
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Morgan State
76
MORGAN STATE
Simulated Score
North Carolina A&T
71
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Morgan State
74
MORGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bears (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 18, 2025
NCAT @ MORG
79 - 73
Nov 20, 2024
MORG @ NCAT
83 - 86
Jan 20, 2020
NCAT @ MORG
76 - 70
Jan 19, 2019
MORG @ NCAT
53 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.4%
Morgan State: 78.6%
vs
North Carolina A&T: 67.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Morgan State: 32.0%
vs
North Carolina A&T: 26.7%
Steals (L5)
+37.9% more
North Carolina A&T: 9.8
vs
Morgan State: 6.1
Blocks (L5)
+20.6% more
North Carolina A&T: 4.0
vs
Morgan State: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NCAT Score
64.0
79
MORG Score
76.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.0 / 26.7
24.0 / 32.0
Assists
12.1 / 12.5
13.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.0
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.6 / 43.6
45.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
78.6 / 67.2
71.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
36.3 / 39.3
24.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.1 / 9.8
5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 14.0
5.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCAT
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
MORG
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCAT
Advantage
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
MORG
14-12-1
(53.8%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +3.6
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORG
NCAT
MORG
NCAT
ML
50%
14-14
52%
14-13
58%
14-10
63%
17-10
ATS
50%
14-14
63%
17-10
58%
14-10
64%
18-10
TTL
50%
14-14
69%
18-8-1
100%
24-0
100%
28-0
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