ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
GOLDEN LIONSUAPB
0-7 | Road
70
MARSHALL
THUNDERING HERDMRSH
4-1 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
100%
THUNDERING HERD
0%
GOLDEN LIONS
--
THUNDERING HERD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Marshall)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRSH -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)
UAPB By 1-7 points
0.0%
UAPB By 8-14 points
0.0%
MRSH By 1-7 points
0.4%
MRSH By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
56
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Marshall
90
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
67
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Marshall
82
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thundering Herd
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thundering Herd
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thundering Herd (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim
Thundering Herd (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 20, 2025
UAPB @ MRSH
70 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+115.9% more
Marshall: 5.6
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 2.6
Assists (L5)
+44.6% more
Marshall: 18.5
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 12.8
Rebounding (L5)
+19.4% more
Marshall: 37.9
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 31.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.0%
Marshall: 36.6%
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 27.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score
56.0
70
MRSH Score
90.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 27.6
46.0 / 22.0
Assists
18.5 / 12.8
22.0 / 9.0
Blocks
5.6 / 2.6
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 38.1
53.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
72.6 / 70.4
81.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 31.8
38.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.4 / 6.2
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.7 / 15.2
11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
MRSH
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB
Advantage
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
MRSH
10-20-1
(33.3%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
UAPB
MRSH
UAPB
ML
70%
21-9
74%
23-8
62%
18-11
73%
19-7
ATS
70%
21-9
73%
22-8-1
62%
18-11
73%
19-7
TTL
50%
15-15
68%
21-10
100%
29-0
100%
26-0
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