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BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

4-1  |  Road

79
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 2:00 PM ET
Colonial Hall
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA

GAMECOCKSSC

4-1  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
GAMECOCKS
0%
BULLDOGS --
GAMECOCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (South Carolina)
BulldogsBUT (-3.5) 0 GamecocksSC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

1.4%

Gamecocks Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SC -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SC)

BUT By 1-7 points

1.1%

BUT By 8-14 points

0.1%

SC By 1-7 points

5.8%

SC By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
71
BUTLER
93
SOUTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
68
BUTLER
72
SOUTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gamecocks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gamecocks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gamecocks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Gamecocks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 BUT @ SC 79 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +11.6%
South Carolina: 78.4% vs Butler: 66.8%
Steals (L5) +37.6% more
Butler: 8.2 vs South Carolina: 5.1
Turnovers (L5) +25.0% more
Butler: 14.5 vs South Carolina: 10.9
Blocks (L5) +20.2% more
Butler: 3.7 vs South Carolina: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUT Score 71.0 79
SC Score 93.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 40.5 27.0 / 42.0
Assists 18.3 / 20.2 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.7 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 48.9 40.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 78.4 / 66.8 68.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 39.8 29.0 / 48.0
Steals 5.1 / 8.2 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 14.5 7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
SC
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
SC
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
SC
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SC
BUT
SC
BUT
ML
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
65% 20-11
ATS
69% 22-10
56% 18-14
68% 21-10
65% 20-11
TTL
50% 16-16
50% 16-16
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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