NORTHWESTERN
WILDCATSNU
4-1 | Road
78
VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
5-0 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
WILDCATS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Virginia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)
NU By 1-7 points
16.9%
NU By 8-14 points
6.8%
UVA By 1-7 points
26.8%
UVA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern
68
NORTHWESTERN
Virginia
74
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
Northwestern
60
NORTHWESTERN
Virginia
63
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
NU @ UVA
78 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+48.6% more
Virginia: 6.7
vs
Northwestern: 4.5
Rebounding (L5)
+19.4% more
Virginia: 40.5
vs
Northwestern: 33.9
Steals (L5)
+11.2% more
Virginia: 7.6
vs
Northwestern: 6.9
Turnovers (L5)
+8.3% more
Virginia: 10.2
vs
Northwestern: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NU Score
68.0
78
UVA Score
74.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.8 / 40.0
21.0 / 44.0
Assists
17.7 / 18.5
8.0 / 14.0
Blocks
6.7 / 4.5
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
49.6 / 52.3
38.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 69.2
83.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
40.5 / 33.9
49.0 / 25.0
Steals
7.6 / 6.9
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 9.4
11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU
16-16-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
UVA
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.0
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
NU
UVA
NU
ML
67%
24-12
47%
16-18
72%
26-10
68%
23-11
ATS
75%
27-9
50%
17-17
72%
26-10
68%
23-11
TTL
53%
19-17
53%
18-16
100%
36-0
100%
34-0
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