NORTHERN COLORADO
BEARSUNCO
3-1 | Road
72
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
4-2 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
TOMMIES
0%
BEARS
--
TOMMIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STMN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)
UNCO By 1-7 points
16.9%
UNCO By 8-14 points
6.8%
STMN By 1-7 points
26.8%
STMN By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Colorado
74
NORTHERN COLORADO
St. Thomas-Minnesota
80
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Northern Colorado
68
NORTHERN COLORADO
St. Thomas-Minnesota
72
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tommies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tommies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tommies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Tommies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
UNCO @ STMN
72 - 73
Dec 4, 2024
STMN @ UNCO
87 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+34.8% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 8.5
vs
Northern Colorado: 6.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.6%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 79.6%
vs
Northern Colorado: 75.0%
Rebounding (L5)
+32.8% more
Northern Colorado: 42.0
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 28.2
Blocks (L5)
+27.7% more
Northern Colorado: 3.0
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score
74.0
72
STMN Score
80.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 40.2
27.0 / 29.0
Assists
15.0 / 17.5
12.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.2 / 3.0
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.5 / 50.3
44.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 75.0
63.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
28.2 / 42.0
31.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.5 / 6.3
10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 14.1
11.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.5
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.5
STMN
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.7
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
UNCO
STMN
UNCO
ML
64%
21-12
50%
16-16
64%
21-12
66%
21-11
ATS
70%
23-10
53%
17-15
64%
21-12
66%
21-11
TTL
61%
20-13
50%
16-16
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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