NORTH FLORIDA
OSPREYSUNF
1-4 | Road
83
SOUTHERN MISS
GOLDEN EAGLESUSM
3-3 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
OSPREYS
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
OSPREYS
--
GOLDEN EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Southern Miss)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USM -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)
UNF By 1-7 points
16.9%
UNF By 8-14 points
6.8%
USM By 1-7 points
26.8%
USM By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
North Florida
68
NORTH FLORIDA
Southern Miss
74
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
North Florida
72
NORTH FLORIDA
Southern Miss
78
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Eagles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Eagles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Golden Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 22, 2025
UNF @ USM
83 - 92
Dec 14, 2019
UNF @ USM
72 - 69
Nov 14, 2019
USM @ UNF
63 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+379.3% more
Southern Miss: 5.3
vs
North Florida: 1.1
Rebounding (L5)
+28.3% more
Southern Miss: 41.6
vs
North Florida: 32.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.7%
Southern Miss: 70.2%
vs
North Florida: 68.5%
Assists (L5)
+9.4% more
North Florida: 15.8
vs
Southern Miss: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNF Score
68.0
83
USM Score
74.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 36.0
20.0 / 50.0
Assists
14.3 / 15.8
16.0 / 22.0
Blocks
5.3 / 1.1
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 44.8
58.0 / 59.0
Free Throw %
70.2 / 68.5
62.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
41.6 / 32.5
35.0 / 20.0
Steals
9.2 / 9.1
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 11.5
10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNF
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: +1.1
USM
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNF
Advantage
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: +1.1
USM
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.5
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
UNF
USM
UNF
ML
53%
18-16
69%
22-10
73%
24-9
66%
21-11
ATS
59%
20-14
69%
22-10
74%
25-9
66%
21-11
TTL
68%
23-11
66%
21-11
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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