Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Cavaliers BUT @ UVA

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

5-1  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 2:00 PM ET
Colonial Hall
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

5-1  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
BULLDOGS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Virginia)
BulldogsBUT (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

5.5%

Cavaliers Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

BUT By 1-7 points

4.0%

BUT By 8-14 points

0.8%

UVA By 1-7 points

13.7%

UVA By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
63
BUTLER
79
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
55
BUTLER
62
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 BUT @ UVA 80 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +84.1% more
Virginia: 5.8 vs Butler: 3.2
Free Throw % (L5) +11.1%
Virginia: 75.3% vs Butler: 64.2%
Turnovers (L5) +19.3% more
Butler: 13.0 vs Virginia: 10.5
Steals (L5) +14.1% more
Butler: 7.5 vs Virginia: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUT Score 63.0 80
UVA Score 79.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 41.0 30.0 / 40.0
Assists 14.5 / 16.5 6.0 / 11.0
Blocks 5.8 / 3.2 11.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 48.6 41.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 64.2 47.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 43.3 / 42.5 39.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.5 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 13.0 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
UVA
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
BUT
UVA
BUT
ML
67% 24-12
62% 20-12
72% 26-10
65% 20-11
ATS
75% 27-9
56% 18-14
72% 26-10
65% 20-11
TTL
53% 19-17
50% 16-16
100% 36-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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