TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
4-2 | Road
75
TROY
TROJANSTROY
4-4 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
TROJANS
0%
ROCKETS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TROY -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
TOL By 1-7 points
20.1%
TOL By 8-14 points
9.3%
TROY By 1-7 points
27.4%
TROY By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toledo
64
TOLEDO
Troy
68
TROY
Simulated Score
Toledo
73
TOLEDO
Troy
76
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 24, 2025
TOL @ TROY
75 - 68
Nov 4, 2024
TOL @ TROY
74 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.3% more
Troy: 2.6
vs
Toledo: 1.8
Rebounding (L5)
+36.4% more
Troy: 44.9
vs
Toledo: 32.9
Steals (L5)
+21.3% more
Troy: 9.8
vs
Toledo: 8.1
Turnovers (L5)
+17.6% more
Troy: 14.8
vs
Toledo: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOL Score
64.0
75
TROY Score
68.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 37.2
18.0 / 33.0
Assists
16.8 / 16.7
12.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.6 / 1.8
5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 51.3
40.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
75.0 / 78.5
79.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
44.9 / 32.9
39.0 / 38.0
Steals
9.8 / 8.1
5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 12.6
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
TROY
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
TOL
TROY
TOL
ML
59%
20-14
48%
16-17
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
ATS
65%
22-12
48%
16-17
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
TTL
56%
19-15
64%
21-12
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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