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IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

5-0  |  Road

83
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 4:30 PM ET
Michelob ULTRA Arena
View Odds Details →

ST. JOHN'S

RED STORMSJU

3-2  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
CYCLONES
100%
📊
RED STORM
0%
CYCLONES --
RED STORM --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (St. John's)
CyclonesISU (-3.5) 0 Red StormSJU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cyclones Cover

0.0%

Red Storm Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SJU -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)

ISU By 1-7 points

0.0%

ISU By 8-14 points

0.0%

SJU By 1-7 points

0.5%

SJU By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
50
IOWA STATE
83
ST. JOHN'S
Simulated Score
71
IOWA STATE
78
ST. JOHN'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Storm Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Storm Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Storm (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Red Storm (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 ISU @ SJU 83 - 82
Dec 4, 2022 SJU @ ISU 60 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +88.5% more
St. John's: 5.6 vs Iowa State: 3.0
Rebounding (L5) +27.2% more
St. John's: 45.2 vs Iowa State: 35.5
Turnovers (L5) +20.6% more
St. John's: 11.6 vs Iowa State: 9.6
Assists (L5) +8.8% more
St. John's: 18.6 vs Iowa State: 17.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 50.0 83
SJU Score 83.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 33.9 35.0 / 41.0
Assists 18.6 / 17.1 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.6 / 3.0 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 54.4 43.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 67.7 77.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 45.2 / 35.5 36.0 / 38.0
Steals 10.8 / 12.0 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 9.6 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
SJU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
SJU Advantage
22-13-1 (62.9%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJU
ISU
SJU
ISU
ML
62% 18-11
57% 21-16
62% 18-11
76% 26-8
ATS
66% 19-10
62% 23-14
62% 18-11
76% 26-8
TTL
59% 17-12
54% 20-17
100% 29-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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