GEORGE WASHINGTON
REVOLUTIONARIESGW
6-1 | Road
92
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
4-2 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
REVOLUTIONARIES
100%
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
REVOLUTIONARIES
--
BLUE RAIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTSU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)
GW By 1-7 points
9.3%
GW By 8-14 points
2.7%
MTSU By 1-7 points
21.6%
MTSU By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
George Washington
77
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Middle Tennessee
88
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
George Washington
68
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Middle Tennessee
75
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Raiders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Raiders
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Raiders (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Blue Raiders (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 24, 2025
GW @ MTSU
92 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+28.9% more
George Washington: 16.0
vs
Middle Tennessee: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.5%
George Washington: 73.2%
vs
Middle Tennessee: 63.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
George Washington: 39.0%
vs
Middle Tennessee: 32.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
George Washington: 49.7%
vs
Middle Tennessee: 44.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GW Score
77.0
92
MTSU Score
88.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 39.0
37.0 / 50.0
Assists
14.9 / 16.1
14.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.0
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 49.7
51.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
63.6 / 73.2
78.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
42.5 / 40.7
27.0 / 26.0
Steals
6.0 / 6.4
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 16.0
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GW
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
MTSU
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GW
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GW
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -0.4
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
GW
MTSU
GW
ML
56%
18-14
63%
22-13
69%
22-10
60%
21-14
ATS
75%
24-8
69%
24-11
69%
22-10
60%
21-14
TTL
53%
17-15
60%
21-14
100%
32-0
100%
35-0
