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GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

3-4  |  Road

61
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 6:30 PM ET
John Hurst Adams Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

YOUNGSTOWN STATE

PENGUINSYSU

3-4  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
PENGUINS
0%
EAGLES --
PENGUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Youngstown State)
EaglesGASO (-3.5) 0 PenguinsYSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

27.4%

Penguins Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around YSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YSU)

GASO By 1-7 points

16.9%

GASO By 8-14 points

6.8%

YSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

YSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
73
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
79
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Simulated Score
72
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
78
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penguins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penguins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Penguins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 GASO @ YSU 61 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Youngstown State: 43.3% vs Georgia Southern: 40.9%
Rebounding (L5) +12.8% more
Georgia Southern: 36.5 vs Youngstown State: 31.8
Free Throw % (L5) +2.0%
Georgia Southern: 72.2% vs Youngstown State: 70.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 73.0 61
YSU Score 79.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 33.0 32.0 / 23.0
Assists 12.0 / 12.6 8.0 / 6.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.3 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 40.9 45.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 72.2 72.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 31.8 / 36.5 39.0 / 29.0
Steals 9.0 / 8.7 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 13.7 19.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
YSU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
YSU
10-18-1 (35.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
YSU
GASO
YSU
GASO
ML
57% 17-13
56% 20-16
67% 20-10
58% 19-14
ATS
47% 14-16
64% 23-13
67% 20-10
58% 19-14
TTL
60% 18-12
61% 22-14
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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