Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sun Devils @ Longhorns ASU @ TEX

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

5-1  |  Road

87
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 11:43 PM ET
Lahaina Civic Center
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

LONGHORNSTEX

4-2  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
SUN DEVILS
100%
📊
LONGHORNS
0%
SUN DEVILS --
LONGHORNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Texas)
Sun DevilsASU (-3.5) 0 LonghornsTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sun Devils Cover

8.1%

Longhorns Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TEX -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

ASU By 1-7 points

5.8%

ASU By 8-14 points

1.4%

TEX By 1-7 points

16.9%

TEX By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
35
ARIZONA STATE
49
TEXAS
Simulated Score
67
ARIZONA STATE
78
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Longhorns Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Longhorns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Longhorns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Longhorns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 84.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 ASU @ TEX 87 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +26.8% more
Texas: 43.8 vs Arizona State: 34.5
Assists (L5) +17.4% more
Texas: 14.5 vs Arizona State: 12.3
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Texas: 48.0% vs Arizona State: 43.1%
Steals (L5) +22.7% more
Arizona State: 8.4 vs Texas: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 35.0 87
TEX Score 49.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.9 / 32.3 32.0 / 50.0
Assists 14.5 / 12.3 10.0 / 4.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.0 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 43.1 55.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 66.0 / 68.0 74.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 43.8 / 34.5 34.0 / 22.0
Steals 6.5 / 8.4 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 7.7 / 9.5 19.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
TEX Advantage
21-15-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
TEX
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ASU
TEX
ASU
ML
58% 21-15
52% 17-16
56% 19-15
68% 21-10
ATS
56% 20-16
52% 17-16
56% 19-15
68% 21-10
TTL
64% 23-13
64% 21-12
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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