ST. JOHN'S
RED STORMSJU
4-2 | Road
96
BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
4-1 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
RED STORM
100%
BEARS
0%
RED STORM
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Baylor)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)
SJU By 1-7 points
0.0%
SJU By 8-14 points
0.0%
BAY By 1-7 points
0.1%
BAY By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
St. John's
36
ST. JOHN'S
Baylor
76
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
St. John's
71
ST. JOHN'S
Baylor
78
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bears (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 25, 2025
SJU @ BAY
96 - 81
Nov 21, 2024
BAY @ SJU
99 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.2%
Baylor: 76.1%
vs
St. John's: 72.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Baylor: 35.9%
vs
St. John's: 33.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+15.4% more
St. John's: 42.1
vs
Baylor: 35.7
Assists (L5)
+11.4% more
St. John's: 17.4
vs
Baylor: 15.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SJU Score
36.0
96
BAY Score
76.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 33.1
32.0 / 50.0
Assists
15.4 / 17.4
10.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.7
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 46.7
37.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 72.9
88.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 42.1
48.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.7 / 8.5
2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 11.1
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
BAY
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJU
Advantage
22-13-1
(62.9%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
BAY
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9%
Total +/-: -3.6
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
SJU
BAY
SJU
ML
58%
19-14
62%
18-11
53%
17-15
62%
18-11
ATS
58%
19-14
66%
19-10
53%
17-15
62%
18-11
TTL
45%
15-18
59%
17-12
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
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