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MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

5-3  |  Road

96
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 7:30 PM ET
John Gray Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

GEORGE WASHINGTON

REVOLUTIONARIESGW

6-2  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
100%
📊
REVOLUTIONARIES
0%
RACERS --
REVOLUTIONARIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (George Washington)
RacersMUR (-3.5) 0 RevolutionariesGW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Racers Cover

9.7%

Revolutionaries Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GW -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GW)

MUR By 1-7 points

6.8%

MUR By 8-14 points

1.7%

GW By 1-7 points

18.6%

GW By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
73
MURRAY STATE
86
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
71
MURRAY STATE
74
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Revolutionaries Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Revolutionaries Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Revolutionaries (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Revolutionaries (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 MUR @ GW 96 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +37.5% more
George Washington: 7.6 vs Murray State: 5.5
Assists (L5) +22.5% more
George Washington: 17.1 vs Murray State: 14.0
Field Goal % (L5) +8.6%
George Washington: 52.1% vs Murray State: 43.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.6%
George Washington: 42.7% vs Murray State: 35.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 73.0 96
GW Score 86.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.7 / 35.1 37.0 / 40.0
Assists 17.1 / 14.0 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.0 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 52.1 / 43.6 51.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 68.7 79.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 39.2 30.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.6 / 5.5 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 14.0 7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
GW
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
GW Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
GW
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GW
MUR
GW
MUR
ML
63% 22-13
58% 19-14
60% 21-14
61% 20-13
ATS
69% 24-11
52% 17-16
60% 21-14
61% 20-13
TTL
60% 21-14
70% 23-10
100% 35-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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