Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gaels @ Shockers SMC @ WICH

SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

7-0  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 8:00 PM ET
Imperial Arena
View Odds Details →

WICHITA STATE

SHOCKERSWICH

4-2  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
📊
SHOCKERS
0%
GAELS --
SHOCKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
WICHITA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Wichita State)
GaelsSMC (-3.5) 0 ShockersWICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gaels Cover

18.4%

Shockers Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WICH -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WICH)

SMC By 1-7 points

12.2%

SMC By 8-14 points

4.0%

WICH By 1-7 points

24.3%

WICH By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
75
SAINT MARY'S
84
WICHITA STATE
Simulated Score
71
SAINT MARY'S
60
WICHITA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Shockers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Shockers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Gaels (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 SMC @ WICH 70 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +35.0% more
Saint Mary's: 17.7 vs Wichita State: 11.5
Blocks (L5) +26.2% more
Saint Mary's: 5.1 vs Wichita State: 3.7
Steals (L5) +23.8% more
Saint Mary's: 7.0 vs Wichita State: 5.3
Turnovers (L5) +17.9% more
Saint Mary's: 10.9 vs Wichita State: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMC Score 75.0 70
WICH Score 84.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 44.2 29.0 / 13.0
Assists 11.5 / 17.7 7.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.7 / 5.1 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 48.5 41.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 68.9 / 75.2 79.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 45.1 36.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.3 / 7.0 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 10.9 13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC Advantage
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
WICH
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
WICH Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
WICH
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WICH
SMC
WICH
SMC
ML
61% 22-14
56% 18-14
68% 23-11
82% 23-5
ATS
64% 23-13
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
83% 24-5
TTL
69% 25-11
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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