LONGWOOD
LANCERSLONG
3-4 | Road
63
SIENA
SAINTSSIE
5-2 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
100%
SAINTS
0%
LANCERS
--
SAINTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
91.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SIENA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Siena)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIE -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIE)
LONG By 1-7 points
2.2%
LONG By 8-14 points
0.4%
SIE By 1-7 points
9.3%
SIE By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Longwood
36
LONGWOOD
Siena
55
SIENA
Simulated Score
Longwood
64
LONGWOOD
Siena
68
SIENA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Saints
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Saints
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Saints (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Saints (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 91.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 28, 2025
LONG @ SIE
63 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Siena: 49.3%
vs
Longwood: 43.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.1%
Siena: 80.4%
vs
Longwood: 76.3%
Steals (L5)
+29.4% more
Longwood: 10.5
vs
Siena: 7.4
Turnovers (L5)
+26.9% more
Longwood: 14.2
vs
Siena: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LONG Score
36.0
63
SIE Score
55.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
24.8 / 32.2
30.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.4 / 12.9
17.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.0 / 2.1
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 43.4
51.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
80.4 / 76.3
59.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
30.5 / 34.2
27.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.4 / 10.5
12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 14.2
13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LONG
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.1
SIE
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LONG
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.1
SIE
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +2.7
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIE
LONG
SIE
LONG
ML
66%
23-12
65%
20-11
48%
16-17
68%
21-10
ATS
66%
23-12
68%
21-10
48%
16-17
68%
21-10
TTL
54%
19-16
65%
20-11
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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