Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hawks @ Cardinals MONM @ BALL

MONMOUTH

HAWKSMONM

3-3  |  Road

80
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 2:00 PM ET
Kirby Sports Center
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

2-4  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
HAWKS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Ball State)
HawksMONM (-3.5) 0 CardinalsBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

1.4%

Cardinals Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BALL -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

MONM By 1-7 points

1.1%

MONM By 8-14 points

0.1%

BALL By 1-7 points

5.8%

BALL By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
58
MONMOUTH
80
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
68
MONMOUTH
73
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 MONM @ BALL 80 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +11.2% more
Ball State: 7.6 vs Monmouth: 6.8
Blocks (L5) +61.0% more
Monmouth: 6.7 vs Ball State: 2.6
Rebounding (L5) +17.5% more
Monmouth: 37.1 vs Ball State: 30.6
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
Monmouth: 75.6% vs Ball State: 70.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONM Score 58.0 80
BALL Score 80.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.3 / 32.3 37.0 / 43.0
Assists 10.3 / 10.9 20.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.6 / 6.7 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 40.3 / 39.7 45.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 75.6 67.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 30.6 / 37.1 29.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.8 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 12.8 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONM Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
BALL
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONM Advantage
17-15-1 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
BALL
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MONM
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.1
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
MONM
BALL
MONM
ML
43% 13-17
62% 21-13
62% 18-11
64% 21-12
ATS
67% 20-10
62% 21-13
62% 18-11
64% 21-12
TTL
50% 15-15
59% 20-14
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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