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TENNESSEE WESLEYAN

BULLDOGSTWU

0-0  |  Road

59
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 2:00 PM ET
McKenzie Arena
View Odds Details →

CHATTANOOGA

MOCSUTC

4-3  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
50%
📊
MOCS
50%
BULLDOGS --
MOCS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
185.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-63.0
CHATTANOOGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +63.0 points (Chattanooga)
BulldogsTWU (-3.5) 0 MocsUTC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

0.0%

Mocs Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTC -63.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTC)

TWU By 1-7 points

0.0%

TWU By 8-14 points

0.0%

UTC By 1-7 points

0.0%

UTC By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
61
TENNESSEE WESLEYAN
124
CHATTANOOGA
Simulated Score
59
TENNESSEE WESLEYAN
88
CHATTANOOGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Proj Spread: -63.0
D
Sim Mocs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI 185
Proj Total: 185.0
D
Sim o0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 TWU @ UTC 59 - 109
Dec 18, 2024 TWU @ UTC 52 - 99
Dec 10, 2023 TWU @ UTC 51 - 112
Dec 12, 2021 TWU @ UTC 55 - 104
Dec 8, 2019 TWU @ UTC 51 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +103.2% more
Chattanooga: 15.8 vs Tennessee Wesleyan: 7.8
Rebounding (L5) +16.8% more
Chattanooga: 33.1 vs Tennessee Wesleyan: 28.3
Field Goal % (L5) +14.1%
Chattanooga: 44.3% vs Tennessee Wesleyan: 30.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.5%
Chattanooga: 33.6% vs Tennessee Wesleyan: 22.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TWU Score 61.0 59
UTC Score 124.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 22.1 41.0 / 30.0
Assists 15.8 / 7.8 22.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.2 / 3.3 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 30.2 56.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 63.4 82.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 28.3 48.0 / 25.0
Steals 5.6 / 5.7 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 13.6 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TWU
--
UTC Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TWU
--
UTC Advantage
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TWU
--
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTC
TWU
UTC
TWU
ML
48% 15-16
-- 0-0
53% 16-14
-- 0-0
ATS
52% 16-15
-- 0-0
55% 17-14
100% 2-0
TTL
77% 24-7
-- 0-0
100% 31-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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