AIR FORCE
FALCONSAF
3-6 | Road
63
SOUTH DAKOTA
COYOTESSDAK
5-3 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
COYOTES
0%
FALCONS
--
COYOTES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
SOUTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (South Dakota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDAK -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDAK)
AF By 1-7 points
0.1%
AF By 8-14 points
0.0%
SDAK By 1-7 points
1.1%
SDAK By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Air Force
60
AIR FORCE
South Dakota
90
SOUTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
Air Force
68
AIR FORCE
South Dakota
72
SOUTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Coyotes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Coyotes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Coyotes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim
Coyotes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
AF @ SDAK
63 - 80
Nov 26, 2023
AF @ SDAK
58 - 57
Dec 6, 2022
SDAK @ AF
58 - 79
Nov 11, 2021
AF @ SDAK
53 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+42.6% more
South Dakota: 7.2
vs
Air Force: 5.1
Blocks (L5)
+31.9% more
South Dakota: 4.2
vs
Air Force: 3.2
Turnovers (L5)
+10.1% more
South Dakota: 14.1
vs
Air Force: 12.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
South Dakota: 32.0%
vs
Air Force: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
AF Score
60.0
63
SDAK Score
90.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.0 / 30.5
24.0 / 10.0
Assists
12.9 / 14.3
14.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.2
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 46.3
48.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
65.9 / 66.4
72.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
35.9 / 33.3
43.0 / 22.0
Steals
7.2 / 5.1
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 12.8
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AF
3-29-0
(9.4%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
SDAK
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AF
10-21-1
(32.3%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
SDAK
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDAK
AF
SDAK
AF
ML
70%
21-9
81%
26-6
63%
19-11
62%
20-12
ATS
70%
21-9
69%
22-10
63%
19-11
62%
20-12
TTL
67%
20-10
69%
22-10
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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