ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
7-3 | Road
90
LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
2-7 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
100%
TROJANS
0%
RED WOLVES
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
83.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Little Rock)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LR -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)
ARST By 1-7 points
4.8%
ARST By 8-14 points
1.1%
LR By 1-7 points
15.3%
LR By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas State
34
ARKANSAS STATE
Little Rock
49
LITTLE ROCK
Simulated Score
Arkansas State
73
ARKANSAS STATE
Little Rock
76
LITTLE ROCK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 83.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
ARST @ LR
90 - 78
Nov 12, 2024
LR @ ARST
63 - 80
Dec 1, 2023
ARST @ LR
66 - 77
Dec 22, 2022
LR @ ARST
75 - 77
Feb 13, 2021
ARST @ LR
67 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+68.1% more
Little Rock: 4.3
vs
Arkansas State: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+21.9% more
Little Rock: 17.9
vs
Arkansas State: 14.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Little Rock: 30.8%
vs
Arkansas State: 28.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+32.0%
Arkansas State: 77.8%
vs
Little Rock: 45.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARST Score
34.0
90
LR Score
49.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 28.3
50.0 / 35.0
Assists
12.5 / 15.5
14.0 / 15.0
Blocks
4.3 / 2.5
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 43.5
51.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
45.7 / 77.8
59.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
30.9 / 40.9
24.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.4 / 8.1
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
17.9 / 14.6
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
LR
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
LR
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LR
ARST
LR
ARST
ML
52%
16-15
48%
15-16
68%
17-8
53%
16-14
ATS
45%
14-17
58%
18-13
68%
17-8
53%
16-14
TTL
58%
18-13
61%
19-12
100%
25-0
100%
30-0
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