TEXAS A&M
AGGIESTA&M
7-3 | Road
80
SMU
MUSTANGSSMU
9-1 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
MUSTANGS
0%
AGGIES
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
99.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (SMU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)
TA&M By 1-7 points
0.3%
TA&M By 8-14 points
0.0%
SMU By 1-7 points
2.2%
SMU By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas A&M
36
TEXAS A&M
SMU
63
SMU
Simulated Score
Texas A&M
75
TEXAS A&M
SMU
72
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Aggies (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 99.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 7, 2025
TA&M @ SMU
80 - 93
Nov 14, 2023
TA&M @ SMU
79 - 66
Nov 30, 2022
SMU @ TA&M
64 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+33.2% more
SMU: 3.1
vs
Texas A&M: 2.3
Steals (L5)
+30.6% more
Texas A&M: 9.6
vs
SMU: 6.7
Assists (L5)
+16.0% more
Texas A&M: 20.1
vs
SMU: 16.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.3%
Texas A&M: 40.6%
vs
SMU: 27.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TA&M Score
36.0
80
SMU Score
63.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.3 / 40.6
23.0 / 24.0
Assists
16.9 / 20.1
17.0 / 21.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.3
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 46.5
47.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
71.9 / 82.7
93.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
42.1 / 40.2
37.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.7 / 9.6
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 11.6
11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TA&M
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +0.6
SMU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TA&M
Advantage
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +0.6
SMU
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TA&M
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +2.0
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
TA&M
SMU
TA&M
ML
59%
20-14
67%
20-10
73%
24-9
54%
15-13
ATS
62%
21-13
67%
20-10
73%
24-9
54%
15-13
TTL
56%
19-15
70%
21-9
100%
33-0
100%
28-0
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