Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Horned Frogs @ Mean Green TCU @ UNT

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

6-3  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 5:30 PM ET
Dickies Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

MEAN GREENUNT

7-3  |  Home

55
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
100%
📊
MEAN GREEN
0%
HORNED FROGS --
MEAN GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (North Texas)
Horned FrogsTCU (-3.5) 0 Mean GreenUNT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Horned Frogs Cover

5.5%

Mean Green Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNT -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

TCU By 1-7 points

4.0%

TCU By 8-14 points

0.8%

UNT By 1-7 points

13.7%

UNT By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
53
TCU
69
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
65
TCU
72
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mean Green Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mean Green Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mean Green (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Mean Green (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 TCU @ UNT 65 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.5% more
North Texas: 14.1 vs TCU: 10.6
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
North Texas: 49.1% vs TCU: 45.8%
Steals (L5) +16.9% more
TCU: 8.1 vs North Texas: 6.7
Free Throw % (L5) +4.5%
TCU: 68.8% vs North Texas: 64.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 53.0 65
UNT Score 69.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.9 / 40.3 23.0 / 18.0
Assists 15.8 / 17.1 8.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.9 / 4.1 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 45.8 43.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 64.3 / 68.8 71.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 33.2 25.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.7 / 8.1 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 10.6 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
UNT
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
UNT Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
TCU
UNT
TCU
ML
70% 23-10
74% 26-9
59% 19-13
63% 19-11
ATS
52% 17-16
74% 26-9
59% 19-13
63% 19-11
TTL
67% 22-11
66% 23-12
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Drake Men's Basketball Enters Year 2 Under Eric Henderson with R…
kcci 0 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 3 hours, 39 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 3 hours, 51 minutes ago
Mountain West Media Days: Eric Olen Earns High Praise from Rival…
yahoo 22 hours, 55 minutes ago
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
courant 1 day, 9 hours ago