Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Redbirds @ Aggies ILST @ USU

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

8-3  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 5:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

9-1  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
REDBIRDS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
99.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Utah State)
RedbirdsILST (-3.5) 0 AggiesUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redbirds Cover

0.3%

Aggies Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

ILST By 1-7 points

0.3%

ILST By 8-14 points

0.0%

USU By 1-7 points

2.2%

USU By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
36
ILLINOIS STATE
63
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
65
ILLINOIS STATE
78
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 99.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 ILST @ USU 78 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +70.5% more
Utah State: 10.9 vs Illinois State: 6.4
Blocks (L5) +28.7% more
Utah State: 2.7 vs Illinois State: 2.1
Free Throw % (L5) +9.9%
Utah State: 75.3% vs Illinois State: 65.4%
Rebounding (L5) +16.9% more
Illinois State: 40.9 vs Utah State: 34.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILST Score 36.0 78
USU Score 63.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 39.5 39.0 / 36.0
Assists 16.3 / 19.4 18.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.1 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 50.2 52.0 / 59.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 65.4 80.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 40.9 33.0 / 18.0
Steals 10.9 / 6.4 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 10.5 16.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
ILST
USU
ILST
ML
49% 17-18
42% 15-21
66% 21-11
71% 24-10
ATS
74% 26-9
58% 21-15
67% 22-11
71% 24-10
TTL
51% 18-17
58% 21-15
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 13 hours, 25 minutes ago
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
aggieswire 4 days, 13 hours ago
Texas A&M's Blowout Loss to LSU: Five Critical Takeaways
headtopics 1 week, 4 days ago
Texas A&M vs. LSU: Aggies' Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance as …
si 1 week, 5 days ago
Bucky McMillan's Roster Overhaul: Texas A&M Basketball Eyes Tour…
yahoo 1 week, 6 days ago