INDIANA
HOOSIERSIU
8-3 | Road
60
KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
7-4 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
HOOSIERS
100%
WILDCATS
0%
HOOSIERS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UK -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)
IU By 1-7 points
6.8%
IU By 8-14 points
1.7%
UK By 1-7 points
18.6%
UK By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
36
INDIANA
Kentucky
49
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Indiana
72
INDIANA
Kentucky
76
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 85.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
IU @ UK
60 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+103.5% more
Kentucky: 4.1
vs
Indiana: 2.0
Steals (L5)
+19.6% more
Kentucky: 8.0
vs
Indiana: 6.7
Rebounding (L5)
+13.9% more
Kentucky: 36.9
vs
Indiana: 32.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.3%
Kentucky: 81.0%
vs
Indiana: 75.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IU Score
36.0
60
UK Score
49.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.0 / 40.3
20.0 / 17.0
Assists
19.2 / 21.2
10.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.1 / 2.0
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 52.5
38.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
81.0 / 75.7
66.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 32.4
34.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.0 / 6.7
13.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 10.2
4.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
UK
Advantage
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
UK
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.7
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
IU
UK
IU
ML
71%
25-10
66%
21-11
72%
23-9
71%
22-9
ATS
83%
29-6
53%
17-15
72%
23-9
71%
22-9
TTL
63%
22-13
56%
18-14
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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