TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
ISLANDERSAMCC
4-5 | Road
60
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
7-2 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
100%
ISLANDERS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AMCC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AMCC)
AMCC By 1-7 points
21.6%
AMCC By 8-14 points
27.4%
SFA By 1-7 points
9.3%
SFA By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
68
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Stephen F. Austin
57
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
72
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Stephen F. Austin
75
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Islanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Islanders (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
AMCC @ SFA
58 - 60
Feb 16, 2026
SFA @ AMCC
78 - 68
Dec 17, 2025
AMCC @ SFA
60 - 69
Feb 8, 2025
AMCC @ SFA
64 - 78
Dec 7, 2024
SFA @ AMCC
48 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+35.8% more
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 9.4
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 6.0
Turnovers (L5)
+34.9% more
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 13.5
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 8.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 49.4%
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 46.1%
Blocks (L5)
+32.2% more
Stephen F. Austin: 4.8
vs
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
AMCC Score
68.0
60
SFA Score
57.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 34.8
50.0 / 25.0
Assists
16.3 / 17.4
9.0 / 6.0
Blocks
4.8 / 3.6
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 49.4
46.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
69.0 / 66.7
55.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 40.5
33.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.0 / 9.4
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
8.8 / 13.5
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AMCC
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: +1.7
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AMCC
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: +1.7
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
AMCC
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -2.3
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
AMCC
SFA
AMCC
ML
59%
17-12
70%
21-9
79%
23-6
67%
18-9
ATS
59%
17-12
67%
20-10
79%
23-6
67%
18-9
TTL
62%
18-11
60%
18-12
100%
29-0
100%
27-0
Contextual Game News
