Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Flash @ Gators SFPA @ FLA

SAINT FRANCIS

RED FLASHSFPA

2-9  |  Road

61
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 6:30 PM ET
Stephen C. O'Connell Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

GATORSFLA

6-4  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
RED FLASH
100%
📊
GATORS
0%
RED FLASH --
GATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Florida)
Red FlashSFPA (-3.5) 0 GatorsFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Flash Cover

8.1%

Gators Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FLA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

SFPA By 1-7 points

5.8%

SFPA By 8-14 points

1.4%

FLA By 1-7 points

16.9%

FLA By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
35
SAINT FRANCIS
49
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
62
SAINT FRANCIS
85
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gators Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gators Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gators (+44.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Gators (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 84.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 17, 2025 SFPA @ FLA 61 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +33.1% more
Florida: 4.8 vs Saint Francis: 3.6
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
Florida: 42.7 vs Saint Francis: 37.2
Free Throw % (L5) +5.0%
Florida: 69.8% vs Saint Francis: 64.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Florida: 44.4% vs Saint Francis: 41.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFPA Score 35.0 61
FLA Score 49.0 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.4 / 33.2 37.0 / 19.0
Assists 14.9 / 15.2 21.0 / 6.0
Blocks 4.8 / 3.6 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 41.9 61.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 64.9 83.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 37.2 44.0 / 19.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.9 4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 13.1 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFPA
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
FLA Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFPA
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
FLA Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +5.8
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
SFPA
FLA
SFPA
ML
77% 27-8
68% 21-10
63% 22-13
67% 20-10
ATS
69% 24-11
68% 21-10
63% 22-13
67% 20-10
TTL
63% 22-13
58% 18-13
100% 35-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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