YOUNGSTOWN STATE
PENGUINSYSU
7-4 | Road
77
ROBERT MORRIS
COLONIALSRMU
8-4 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
COLONIALS
100%
PENGUINS
--
COLONIALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
98.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Youngstown State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around YSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YSU)
YSU By 1-7 points
1.7%
YSU By 8-14 points
6.8%
RMU By 1-7 points
0.2%
RMU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Youngstown State
63
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Robert Morris
35
ROBERT MORRIS
Simulated Score
Youngstown State
75
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Robert Morris
70
ROBERT MORRIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 98.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
YSU @ RMU
53 - 68
Feb 7, 2026
RMU @ YSU
72 - 66
Dec 17, 2025
YSU @ RMU
77 - 80
Mar 11, 2025
YSU @ RMU
78 - 89
Jan 22, 2025
RMU @ YSU
72 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+53.0% more
Youngstown State: 8.2
vs
Robert Morris: 3.9
Blocks (L5)
+28.4% more
Youngstown State: 2.8
vs
Robert Morris: 2.0
Turnovers (L5)
+21.7% more
Youngstown State: 12.8
vs
Robert Morris: 10.0
Assists (L5)
+8.3% more
Youngstown State: 16.9
vs
Robert Morris: 15.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YSU Score
63.0
77
RMU Score
35.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.7 / 37.1
38.0 / 42.0
Assists
15.5 / 16.9
15.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.0 / 2.8
0.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 52.0
42.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
67.4 / 67.8
76.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
40.8 / 39.1
32.0 / 27.0
Steals
3.9 / 8.2
10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 12.8
10.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
RMU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
RMU
Advantage
19-11-1
(63.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +0.2
RMU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RMU
YSU
RMU
YSU
ML
36%
12-21
57%
17-13
56%
18-14
67%
20-10
ATS
55%
18-15
47%
14-16
56%
18-14
67%
20-10
TTL
55%
18-15
60%
18-12
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
