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RICHMOND

SPIDERSRICH

9-1  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Schar Center
View Odds Details →

ELON

PHOENIXELON

6-4  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
SPIDERS
100%
📊
PHOENIX
0%
SPIDERS --
PHOENIX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ELON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Elon)
SpidersRICH (-3.5) 0 PhoenixELON (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spiders Cover

46.0%

Phoenix Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ELON -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ELON)

RICH By 1-7 points

24.3%

RICH By 8-14 points

13.7%

ELON By 1-7 points

26.2%

ELON By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
38
RICHMOND
39
ELON
Simulated Score
68
RICHMOND
75
ELON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phoenix Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Phoenix Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phoenix (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Phoenix (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 17, 2025 RICH @ ELON 70 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.5%
Elon: 74.5% vs Richmond: 72.0%
Blocks (L5) +23.0% more
Richmond: 4.1 vs Elon: 3.2
Steals (L5) +10.7% more
Richmond: 7.1 vs Elon: 6.3
Turnovers (L5) +8.7% more
Richmond: 11.2 vs Elon: 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RICH Score 38.0 70
ELON Score 39.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 36.8 40.0 / 41.0
Assists 15.3 / 14.8 10.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.1 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 48.6 46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 72.0 69.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 35.9 28.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.3 / 7.1 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 11.2 13.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICH Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
ELON
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICH Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
ELON
11-19-0 (36.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
RICH
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +0.8
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ELON
RICH
ELON
RICH
ML
61% 19-12
53% 17-15
71% 22-9
56% 18-14
ATS
55% 17-14
44% 14-18
71% 22-9
56% 18-14
TTL
52% 16-15
56% 18-14
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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