Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Bearcats ALST @ CIN

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

3-7  |  Road

51
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Arena
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BEARCATSCIN

6-4  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
BEARCATS
0%
HORNETS --
BEARCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
93.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Cincinnati)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 BearcatsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

4.5%

Bearcats Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIN -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

ALST By 1-7 points

3.3%

ALST By 8-14 points

0.6%

CIN By 1-7 points

12.2%

CIN By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
38
ALABAMA STATE
55
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
61
ALABAMA STATE
82
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bearcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bearcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bearcats (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Bearcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 93.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 17, 2025 ALST @ CIN 51 - 88
Nov 27, 2024 ALST @ CIN 59 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +34.1% more
Cincinnati: 17.1 vs Alabama State: 12.8
Rebounding (L5) +30.5% more
Cincinnati: 40.0 vs Alabama State: 30.6
Turnovers (L5) +20.7% more
Cincinnati: 13.4 vs Alabama State: 11.1
Blocks (L5) +12.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.4 vs Alabama State: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 38.0 51
CIN Score 55.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 41.9 23.0 / 20.0
Assists 17.1 / 12.8 25.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.4 / 3.9 7.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 38.9 / 45.9 49.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 59.5 / 69.0 70.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 30.6 45.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.1 / 7.2 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 11.1 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
CIN Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
CIN Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ALST
CIN
ALST
ML
67% 22-11
65% 20-11
74% 23-8
76% 19-6
ATS
64% 21-12
65% 20-11
74% 23-8
76% 19-6
TTL
67% 22-11
52% 16-15
100% 31-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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