SOUTH ALABAMA
JAGUARSUSA
8-3 | Road
96
UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
3-8 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
WARHAWKS
0%
JAGUARS
--
WARHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UL Monroe)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ULM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)
USA By 1-7 points
24.3%
USA By 8-14 points
13.7%
ULM By 1-7 points
26.2%
ULM By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
South Alabama
38
SOUTH ALABAMA
UL Monroe
39
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
South Alabama
65
SOUTH ALABAMA
UL Monroe
72
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Warhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warhawks (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Warhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
ULM @ USA
54 - 89
Dec 17, 2025
USA @ ULM
96 - 92
Jan 30, 2025
ULM @ USA
62 - 58
Jan 27, 2025
USA @ ULM
66 - 77
Mar 1, 2024
ULM @ USA
69 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+54.8% more
UL Monroe: 5.0
vs
South Alabama: 3.2
Assists (L5)
+22.7% more
UL Monroe: 13.2
vs
South Alabama: 10.8
Turnovers (L5)
+12.8% more
UL Monroe: 11.2
vs
South Alabama: 10.0
Steals (L5)
+45.9% more
South Alabama: 8.0
vs
UL Monroe: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USA Score
38.0
96
ULM Score
39.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 30.9
42.0 / 30.0
Assists
13.2 / 10.8
22.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.0 / 3.2
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 43.4
44.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
69.1 / 68.0
81.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
33.4 / 33.7
38.0 / 33.0
Steals
4.3 / 8.0
11.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 10.0
24.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA
Advantage
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
ULM
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +2.3
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
USA
ULM
USA
ML
50%
16-16
47%
15-17
70%
21-9
57%
17-13
ATS
78%
25-7
53%
17-15
70%
21-9
57%
17-13
TTL
59%
19-13
66%
21-11
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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