KENNESAW STATE
OWLSKENN
8-2 | Road
67
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
5-4 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
OWLS
100%
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
OWLS
--
BLUE RAIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
79.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)
KENN By 1-7 points
24.3%
KENN By 8-14 points
13.7%
MTSU By 1-7 points
26.2%
MTSU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Kennesaw State
39
KENNESAW STATE
Middle Tennessee
40
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
Kennesaw State
72
KENNESAW STATE
Middle Tennessee
76
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Raiders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Raiders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Raiders (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Blue Raiders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 79.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
MTSU @ KENN
90 - 87
Dec 17, 2025
KENN @ MTSU
67 - 68
Feb 8, 2025
MTSU @ KENN
76 - 75
Jan 9, 2025
KENN @ MTSU
79 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.2%
Middle Tennessee: 72.2%
vs
Kennesaw State: 69.0%
Steals (L5)
+35.7% more
Kennesaw State: 8.7
vs
Middle Tennessee: 5.6
Assists (L5)
+22.1% more
Kennesaw State: 16.5
vs
Middle Tennessee: 12.9
Rebounding (L5)
+20.4% more
Kennesaw State: 46.5
vs
Middle Tennessee: 37.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KENN Score
39.0
67
MTSU Score
40.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 38.0
27.0 / 15.0
Assists
12.9 / 16.5
9.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.5 / 4.5
11.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
41.1 / 50.4
34.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
72.2 / 69.0
75.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
37.0 / 46.5
39.0 / 44.0
Steals
5.6 / 8.7
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 12.4
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENN
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +0.8
MTSU
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENN
Advantage
15-16-1
(48.4%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +0.8
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
KENN
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +0.8
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
KENN
MTSU
KENN
ML
56%
18-14
74%
25-9
69%
22-10
72%
23-9
ATS
75%
24-8
71%
24-10
69%
22-10
73%
24-9
TTL
53%
17-15
56%
19-15
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
