Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dukes @ Monarchs JMU @ ODU

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

7-4  |  Road

68
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Chartway Arena
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

MONARCHSODU

3-8  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
100%
📊
MONARCHS
0%
DUKES --
MONARCHS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Old Dominion)
DukesJMU (-3.5) 0 MonarchsODU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

46.0%

Monarchs Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ODU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

JMU By 1-7 points

24.3%

JMU By 8-14 points

13.7%

ODU By 1-7 points

26.2%

ODU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
38
JAMES MADISON
39
OLD DOMINION
Simulated Score
70
JAMES MADISON
74
OLD DOMINION
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Monarchs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Monarchs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Monarchs (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Monarchs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 ODU @ JMU 69 - 70
Dec 17, 2025 JMU @ ODU 68 - 77
Feb 1, 2025 ODU @ JMU 54 - 68
Jan 22, 2025 JMU @ ODU 74 - 60
Feb 3, 2024 ODU @ JMU 63 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +40.8% more
Old Dominion: 12.3 vs James Madison: 8.7
Free Throw % (L5) +9.9%
Old Dominion: 78.2% vs James Madison: 68.3%
Steals (L5) +41.3% more
James Madison: 8.5 vs Old Dominion: 5.0
Assists (L5) +19.2% more
James Madison: 13.3 vs Old Dominion: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 38.0 68
ODU Score 39.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 35.0 32.0 / 22.0
Assists 10.8 / 13.3 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.2 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 42.1 40.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 78.2 / 68.3 82.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 33.2 33.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.0 / 8.5 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 8.7 6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
ODU
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
ODU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
JMU
ODU
JMU
ML
52% 17-16
64% 21-12
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
ATS
70% 23-10
67% 22-11
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
TTL
70% 23-10
67% 22-11
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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