ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
7-4 | Road
89
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
7-5 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
100%
BOBCATS
0%
RED WOLVES
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)
ARST By 1-7 points
24.3%
ARST By 8-14 points
13.7%
TXST By 1-7 points
26.2%
TXST By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas State
38
ARKANSAS STATE
Texas State
39
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
Arkansas State
68
ARKANSAS STATE
Texas State
72
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u151.5
Loss
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 10, 2026
TXST @ ARST
82 - 83
Dec 17, 2025
ARST @ TXST
89 - 70
Feb 1, 2025
ARST @ TXST
85 - 74
Jan 25, 2025
TXST @ ARST
65 - 80
Jan 20, 2024
ARST @ TXST
79 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+51.9% more
Texas State: 4.4
vs
Arkansas State: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+46.2% more
Texas State: 10.1
vs
Arkansas State: 6.9
Turnovers (L5)
+17.1% more
Texas State: 15.0
vs
Arkansas State: 12.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
Texas State: 34.6%
vs
Arkansas State: 27.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARST Score
38.0
89
TXST Score
39.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 27.7
27.0 / 55.0
Assists
13.3 / 13.9
16.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.4 / 2.9
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 46.6
42.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
73.0 / 77.8
83.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
37.8 / 41.9
23.0 / 39.0
Steals
10.1 / 6.9
13.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 12.8
11.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
TXST
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
ARST
TXST
ARST
ML
42%
13-18
48%
15-16
83%
25-5
53%
16-14
ATS
48%
15-16
58%
18-13
84%
26-5
53%
16-14
TTL
65%
20-11
61%
19-12
100%
31-0
100%
30-0