Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Colts SF @ IND

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

10-4  |  Road

48
FINAL
Mon, Dec 22 • 8:15 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

8-6  |  Home

27
Key Game
Eddy Pineiro
KEY GAME

Eddy Pineiro

#18 | Place kicker
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Eddy Pineiro None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
0%
📊
COLTS
100%
49ERS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Francisco)
49ersSF (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

58.5%

Colts Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-6 points

17.0%

SF By 7-13 points

17.5%

IND By 1-6 points

15.3%

IND By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20
SAN FRANCISCO
17
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
20
SAN FRANCISCO
27
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI 49ers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI 49ers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Colts (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 22, 2025 SF @ IND 48 - 27
Oct 24, 2021 IND @ SF 30 - 18
Oct 8, 2017 SF @ IND 23 - 26
Sep 22, 2013 IND @ SF 27 - 7
Nov 1, 2009 SF @ IND 14 - 18
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +11.1% more
San Francisco: 21.5 vs Indianapolis: 19.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
San Francisco: 0.5 vs Indianapolis: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
Indianapolis: 1.7 vs San Francisco: 1.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.2% more
Indianapolis: 5.4 vs San Francisco: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 20.0 48
IND Score 17.0 27
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
IND
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
SF
IND
SF
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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